# Can public LNP data rank the next library?

The 2026 LNPDB paper reports 19,528 formulations drawn from 42 publications and one commercial source. The frozen local analysis retains 13,982 candidates in 37 assay-specific panels from 28 publications after applying its declared endpoint and panel rules. <!-- claim:lnpdb-source -->

LNP Atlas is not pooled into the endpoint. Its archived biological-activity field is heterogeneous free text rather than a row-wise normalized luminescence target compatible with LNPDB; particle size, PDI, and encapsulation efficiency answer different questions. The recorded decision is: The archived table is machine-readable, but its bioactivity_profile field consolidates heterogeneous free text rather than a row-wise normalized luminescence target compatible with LNPDB. Particle size, PDI, and encapsulation efficiency answer different questions and are therefore not pooled into this screening benchmark. <!-- claim:compatibility-boundary -->

Each outer fold withholds one complete PubMed publication, removes exact test formulations from training, and chooses model family and regularization only inside the remaining panels. Identifiers, source links, and target values are forbidden as features. <!-- claim:cold-evaluation -->

Candidate-random nDCG@K is 0.656, while publication-cold nDCG@K is 0.570. Publication-cold top-K hit rate is 0.141. The primary advantages over random expectation remain small and their publication-cluster intervals include zero. <!-- claim:base-performance -->

At the 20% nominal budget, the integer rule tests 20.35% of candidates and recovers 0.284 of each panel's top decile versus 0.203 under exact random selection. The paired recall uplift is +0.081; its pointwise 95% interval is +0.016 to +0.148, while its 95% family-wise Bonferroni-7 interval is -0.005 to +0.170. At 50%, uplift is +0.096, with simultaneous interval -0.026 to +0.212. Panel-level any-hit uplift is -0.078 at 20% and -0.042 at 50%; its simultaneous intervals are -0.246 to +0.054 and -0.140 to +0.010. All four simultaneous intervals include zero. <!-- claim:decision-budget -->

The target-free publication map contains 754 directed publication pairs and uses no target values. Across 28 held-out publications, nearest-source distance has Spearman correlation +0.216 with mean nDCG@K (-0.196 to +0.589). It does not identify reliable transfers. <!-- claim:publication-support -->

The moderate-budget recall point estimates favor the frozen ranking, but the seven-budget simultaneous intervals include zero. The study does not support a dependable small-campaign hit guarantee, a validated abstention rule, prospective discovery, manufacturing readiness, safety, efficacy, or clinical benefit. <!-- claim:interpretation -->
